THE COST OF FORWARD CONTRACTING

The cost of forward contracting corn is estimated with weekly pre-harvest forward bases for seven regions of Illinois from 1975 to 2002. Given the panel structure of the forward basis dataset, we extend Townsend and Brorsen's univariate unit root model for forward bases to a panel unit root model. With the time series of forward bases modeled as unit root processes, the cost of forward contracting is estimated. The empirical results from the estimation show that the cost of forward contracting corn is about 1¢/bushel, one hundred days before the harvest, for all regions in Illinois as a whole. The results also indicates that the cost could vary across regions and that the cost of forward contracting could be substantially higher than that of futures hedging, especially at the beginning of the pre-harvest period.Marketing,

Bioresorbable Polylactide Interbody Implants in an Ovine Anterior Cervical Discectomy and Fusion Model: Three-Year Results

Study Design. In vivo study of anterior discectomy and fusion using a bioresorbable 70:30 poly(l-lactide-co-d,l-lactide) interbody implant in an ovine model. Objective. To evaluate the efficacy of the polylactide implant to function as an interbody fusion device, and to assess the tissue reaction to the material during the resorption process. Summary of Background Data. The use of polylactide as a cervical interbody implant has several potential advantages when compared with traditional materials. Having an elastic modulus very similar to bone minimizes the potential for stress shielding, and as the material resorbs additional loading is transferred to the developing fusion mass. Although preclinical and clinical studies have demonstrated the suitability of polylactide implants for lumbar interbody fusion, detailed information on cervical anterior cervical discectomy and fusion (ACDF) with polylactide devices is desirable. Methods. Single level ACDF was performed in 8 skeletally mature ewes. Bioresorbable 70:30 poly (l-lactide-co-d,l-lactide) interbody implants packed with autograft were used with single-level metallic plates. Radiographs were made every 3 months up to 1 year, and yearly thereafter. The animals were killed at 6 months (3 animals), 12 months (3 animals), and 36 months (2 animals). In addition to the serial plain radiographs, the specimens were evaluated by nondestructive biomechanical testing and undecalcified histologic analysis. Results. The bioresorbable polylactide implants were effective in achieving interbody fusion. The 6-month animals appeared fused radiographically and biomechanically, whereas histologic sections demonstrated partial fusion (in 3 of 3 animals). Radiographic fusion was confirmed histologically and biomechanically at 12 months (3 of 3 animals) and 36 months (2 of 2 animals). A mild chronic inflammatory response to the resorbing polylactide implant was observed at both 6 months and 12 months. At 36 months, the operative levels were solidly fused and the implants were completely resorbed. No adverse tissue response was observed in any animal at any time period. Conclusion. Interbody fusion was achieved using bioresorbable polylactide implants, with no evidence of implant collapse, extrusion, or adverse tissue response to the material. The use of polylactide as a cervical interbody device appears both safe and effective based on these ACDF animal model results

ADVISORY SERVICE MARKETING PROFILES FOR CORN OVER 1995-2000

This report presents marketing profiles and loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain profiles for the advisory services followed by the AgMAS Project for the 1995 through 2000 corn crops. Marketing profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative net amount priced under each program's set of recommendations throughout a crop year. Loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain (LDP/MLG) profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative percentage of the crop on which the LDP/MLG was claimed during the crop year. Marketing profiles provide information to evaluate the style of advisory services in several ways. The percentage of crop priced is a measure of within-crop year price risk. The higher the proportion of a crop priced, the lower the sensitivity of the farmer's position value to crop price changes. For example, when 100% of the crop is priced there is no price sensitivity, which means that changes in price do not affect the value of the farmer's position. On the other hand, when the amount priced is 0%, the value of the farmer's position will vary in the same proportion as the change in price. Marketing profiles, therefore, allow investigating the evolution of price sensitivity under each service's set of recommendations along the marketing window. Marketing profiles also provide other useful information. The number of steps in the profile lines and the location of these steps in the marketing window provide information about timing, frequency and size of recommended transactions. It is also possible to determine from the marketing profile figures how intensely a program uses options markets, since when options positions are open the profile line is irregular. In the same way, LDP/MLG profiles provide information about the size and timing of LDP/MLG claims.Marketing,

ADVISORY SERVICE MARKETING PROFILES FOR SOYBEANS OVER 1995-2000

This report presents marketing profiles and loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain profiles for the advisory services followed by the AgMAS Project for the 1995 through 2000 soybean crops. Marketing profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative net amount priced under each program's set of recommendations throughout a crop year. Loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain (LDP/MLG) profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative percentage of the crop on which the LDP/MLG was claimed during the crop year. Marketing profiles provide information to evaluate the style of advisory services in several ways. The percentage of crop priced is a measure of within-crop year price risk. The higher the proportion of a crop priced, the lower the sensitivity of the farmer's position value to crop price changes. For example, when 100% of the crop is priced there is no price sensitivity, which means that changes in price do not affect the value of the farmer's position. On the other hand, when the amount priced is 0%, the value of the farmer's position will vary in the same proportion as the change in price. Marketing profiles, therefore, allow investigating the evolution of price sensitivity under each service's set of recommendations along the marketing window. Marketing profiles also provide other useful information. The number of steps in the profile lines and the location of these steps in the marketing window provide information about timing, frequency and size of recommended transactions. It is also possible to determine from the marketing profile figures how intensely a program uses options markets, since when options positions are open the profile line is irregular. In the same way, LDP/MLG profiles provide information about the size and timing of LDP/MLG claims.Marketing,

The impact of computed high b-value images on the diagnostic accuracy of DWI for prostate cancer: A receiver operating characteristics analysis.

To evaluate the performance of computed high b value diffusion-weighted images (DWI) in prostate cancer detection. 97 consecutive patients who had undergone multiparametric MRI of the prostate followed by biopsy were reviewed. Five radiologists independently scored 138 lesions on native high b-value images (b = 1200 s/mm2), apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps, and computed high b-value images (contrast equivalent to b = 2000 s/mm2) to compare their diagnostic accuracy. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and McNemar's test were performed to assess the relative performance of computed high b value DWI, native high b-value DWI and ADC maps. No significant difference existed in the area under the curve (AUC) for ROCs comparing B1200 (b = 1200 s/mm2) to computed B2000 (c-B2000) in 5 readers. In 4 of 5 readers c-B2000 had significantly increased sensitivity and/or decreased specificity compared to B1200 (McNemar's p < 0.05), at selected thresholds of interpretation. ADC maps were less accurate than B1200 or c-B2000 for 2 of 5 readers (P < 0.05). This study detected no consistent improvement in overall diagnostic accuracy using c-B2000, compared with B1200 images. Readers detected more cancer with c-B2000 images (increased sensitivity) but also more false positive findings (decreased specificity)

HIPAD - A Hybrid Interior-Point Alternating Direction algorithm for knowledge-based SVM and feature selection

We consider classification tasks in the regime of scarce labeled training data in high dimensional feature space, where specific expert knowledge is also available. We propose a new hybrid optimization algorithm that solves the elastic-net support vector machine (SVM) through an alternating direction method of multipliers in the first phase, followed by an interior-point method for the classical SVM in the second phase. Both SVM formulations are adapted to knowledge incorporation. Our proposed algorithm addresses the challenges of automatic feature selection, high optimization accuracy, and algorithmic flexibility for taking advantage of prior knowledge. We demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our algorithm and compare it with existing methods on a collection of synthetic and real-world data.Comment: Proceedings of 8th Learning and Intelligent OptimizatioN (LION8) Conference, 201

High Resolution Optical Spectroscopy of the F Supergiant Proto-Planetary Nebula V887 Her=IRAS 18095+2704

An abundance analysis is presented for IRAS 18095+2704 (V887 Her), a post-AGB star and proto-planetary nebula. The analysis is based on high-resolution optical spectra from the McDonald Observatory and the Special Astrophysical Observatory. Standard analysis using a classical Kurucz model atmosphere and the line analysis program MOOG provides the atmospheric parameters: Teff = 6500 K, log g = +0.5, and a microturbulent velocity Vt = 4.7 km/s and [Fe/H] = -0.9. Extraction of these parameters is based on excitation of FeI lines, ionization equilibrium between neutral and ions of Mg, Ca, Ti, Cr, and Fe, and the wings of hydrogen Paschen lines. Elemental abundances are obtained for 22 elements and upper limits for an additional four elements. These results show that the star's atmosphere has not experienced a significant number of C- and s-process enriching thermal pulses. Abundance anomalies as judged relative to the compositions of unevolved and less-evolved normal stars of a similar metallicity include Al, Y, and Zr deficiencies with respect to Fe of about 0.5 dex. Judged by composition, the star resembles a RV Tauri variable that has been mildly affected by dust-gas separation reducing the abundances of the elements of highest condensation temperature. This separation may occur in the stellar wind. There are indications that the standard 1D LTE analysis is not entirely appropriate for IRAS 18095+2704. These include a supersonic macroturbulent velocity of 23 km/s, emission in H-alpha and the failure of predicted profiles to fit observed profiles of H-beta and H-gamma.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRA

Attracting Manifold for a Viscous Topology Transition

An analytical method is developed describing the approach to a finite-time singularity associated with collapse of a narrow fluid layer in an unstable Hele-Shaw flow. Under the separation of time scales near a bifurcation point, a long-wavelength mode entrains higher-frequency modes, as described by a version of Hill's equation. In the slaved dynamics, the initial-value problem is solved explicitly, yielding the time and analytical structure of a singularity which is associated with the motion of zeroes in the complex plane. This suggests a general mechanism of singularity formation in this system.Comment: 4 pages, RevTeX, 3 ps figs included with text in uuencoded file, accepted in Phys. Rev. Let

Analytical variables influencing the performance of a miRNA based laboratory assay for prediction of relapse in stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Laboratory assays are needed for early stage non-small lung cancer (NSCLC) that can link molecular and clinical heterogeneity to predict relapse after surgical resection. We technically validated two miRNA assays for prediction of relapse in NSCLC. Total RNA from seventy-five formalin-fixed and paraffin-embedded (FFPE) specimens was extracted, labeled and hybridized to Affymetrix miRNA arrays using different RNA input amounts, ATP-mix dilutions, array lots and RNA extraction- and labeling methods in a total of 166 hybridizations. Two combinations of RNA extraction- and labeling methods (assays I and II) were applied to a cohort of 68 early stage NSCLC patients.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>RNA input amount and RNA extraction- and labeling methods affected signal intensity and the number of detected probes and probe sets, and caused large variation, whereas different ATP-mix dilutions and array lots did not. Leave-one-out accuracies for prediction of relapse were 63% and 73% for the two assays. Prognosticator calls ("no recurrence" or "recurrence") were consistent, independent on RNA amount, ATP-mix dilution, array lots and RNA extraction method. The calls were not robust to changes in labeling method.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In this study, we demonstrate that some analytical conditions such as RNA extraction- and labeling methods are important for the variation in assay performance whereas others are not. Thus, careful optimization that address all analytical steps and variables can improve the accuracy of prediction and facilitate the introduction of microRNA arrays in the clinic for prediction of relapse in stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).</p

Primjena tehnologije rekombinantne DNA za pripravke kolinesteraza kao antidota i detektora organofosfata

To develop new avenues for synthesizing novel antidotes for organophosphate poisoning and for detection of the organophosphates, we have turned to recombinant DNA methods to synthesize cholinesterases with unusual properties. For antidotal therapy we describe mutations of the native mouse and human enzymes that allow for enhanced rates of oxime reactivation. Such enzymes, when localized in the circulation, would enable the circulating cholinesterase to become a catalytic rather than simply a stoichiometric scavenger. Hence, “oxime-assisted catalysis” provides a means for scavenging the organophosphates in the circulation thereby minimizing their tissue penetration and toxicity. Accordingly, the oxime antidote or prophylactic agent has a dual action within the circulation and at the tissue level. Second, through a novel chemistry, termed freeze-frame, click chemistry, we have used organophosphate conjugates of acetylcholinesterase as templates for the synthesis of novel nucleophilic reactivating agents. Finally, acetylcholinesterase can be modified through cysteine substitution mutagenesis and attachment of fluorophores at the substitution positions. When linked at certain locations in the molecule, the attached fluorophore is sensitive to organophosphate conjugation with acetylcholinesterase, and thus the very target of insecticide or nerve agent action becomes a detection molecule for organophosphate exposure.Razvijajući novi pristup sintezi antidota pri otrovanju organofosfatima kao i njihovu detekciju, primijenili smo metode rekombinantne DNA za pripremu kolinesteraza s neuobičajenim svojstvima. Za antidotsku terapiju istražili smo mutacije prirodnih enzima miša i čovjeka koje povećavaju brzine reaktivacije oksimom. Takvi enzimi bi po unosu u cirkulaciju postali katalitički, a ne samo stehiometrijski odstranjivači organofosfata. Na taj način “oksimom potpomognuta kataliza” omogućava čišćenje organofosfata iz cirkulacije umanjujući prodiranje organofosfata u tkiva i njihovu toksičnost. Prema tome, oksim kao antidot ima dvojaku ulogu: u cirkulaciji i na razini tkiva. S druge strane, uporabom novog sintetskog pristupa u oblikovanju biološki aktivnih spojeva poznatog kao “klik kemija” diskretnih proteinskih konformacija, organofosforilirani konjugati acetilkolinesteraze služe kao kalup u sintezi novih nukleofilnih reaktivatora. Naposljetku, acetilkolinesteraza se može mutagenezom modificirati uvo|enjem cisteina na koje se mogu vezati fluorofori. Fluorofori uvedeni na određena mjesta u molekuli acetilkolinesteraze mijenjaju svoja fluorescentna svojstva pri konjugaciji organofosfata s enzimom koji na taj način od objekta djelovanja insekticida i živčanih bojnih otrova postaje molekula za detekciju izloženosti organofosfatima